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Weekend Boxset: The spying game



A bumper weekend of play-off semi-finals, Premier League title/relegation fight and an Old Firm derby.

Seven great matches to take you from Friday to Sunday. It’s the Sound of Football Weekend Boxset.


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All times are UK

Friday

Championship play-offs semi-final first leg: Hull City v Millwall
20.00 on Sky Sports Football, Main Event & Ultra
Hull started the season under a transfer embargo and were strong candidates for relegation. In the face of that hardship, manager Sergej Jakirović, has gathered a team of loanees and free agents and whipped them into a hardworking belligerent unit that started brightly, tailed off but found form at the last minute to snatch the final play-off place. No one exemplifies The Tigers’ season more than striker Oli McBurnie. The Scottish international had his contract cancelled at Las Palmas and washed up against the shores of Hull on a free. He has scored seventeen goals this season and is one of the division’s best players. His brace against Norwich last week set up this match against third-placed Millwall. By contrast to Hull, the South Londoners approach to squad building has been patient and years in the making. Their coach, Alex Neil, seems well suited to the club and has built a team that would probably have finished second if Ipswich’s recovery had been delayed by a couple of weeks. Neil’s play-off record is impressive, having guided Norwich and Sunderland to post season promotion. Key man for them is Femi Azeez. The 24-year-old former non-league player has eleven goals and seven assists this season. The Londoner with a Nigerian dad and Spanish mum represents a modern, diverse London; something that the Millwall public remark upon so frequently. Both teams are effective on the counter, which could hand the advantage to Millwall as Hull, as the home team, try to take the initiative. History is also with The Lions. Despite some notable exceptions, it’s rare to see the sixth placed team win a playoff semi-final. The last was Derby in 2019. TD


Saturday

Championship play-offs semi-final first leg: Middlesbrough v Southampton
12.30 on Sky Sports Football, Main Event & Ultra It’s seven years since the Championship was rocked by the Leeds/Derby spy scandal. If your recollection of the details is unclear, Marcelo Bielsa took sole responsibility, and was fined £200,000 for the caper. Undeterred by such a hefty figure, it appears that Southampton have decide to reboot the spy genre with some not so crafty surveillance of their own. On Thursday morning, someone associated with the Saints was caught snooping and filming at Boro’s training ground. It’s too soon to say how the EFL deal with this matter, but it adds an extra bit of spice to this fixture. Both sides replaced their managers in November: by choice in Southampton’s case, firing Will Still; and by necessity for Boro with Rob Edwards leaving for the Wolves job. Boro romped to a 4-0 win in this fixture in January but that was when they were second in the table and Southampton were in the bottom half. However that has been Boro’s only win since Christmas against any of the sides that finished in the top eight. Southampton finished their season with a nineteen match unbeaten run in the league, which without the late distraction of the FA Cup could have seen them through automatically. There’s no doubt who the form side is, and it’s the one that has already been to Wembley this season. Back in 2019, the sides involved in the spying scandal met again in the play-off semi-finals and delivered a classic, with Derby going through 4-3 on aggregate, only to lose to Villa in the final. GS

League One play-offs semi-final first leg: Stevenage v Stockport County
15.00 on Sky Sports Football, Main Event & Ultra Deja vu for Stockport, who've finished third in League One for a second successive season. Last season their play-off journey ended on penalties against Leyton Orient, and the bad news for the Hatters this time around is that they face the division's most in-form team in Stevenage. It still seems strange to think of Stevenage in the Championship, although they came close back in 2012. Alex Revell's side may not play attacking football — they have one of the lowest rates of possession in the division, and if the table was just decided by goals per match and xG, the Hertfordshire side would have been relegated — but when they do attack, they take their chances, with veteran striker Jamie Reid having one of the best seasons of his career. And Stevenage have the edge over County this season, doing the double over Dave Challinor's side. In short, out of all the teams Stockport could have faced, Stevenage are probably the side they were desperate to avoid. That said, County have done something that other sides have failed to do this season, and that's breaching their opponents miserly defence twice. This tie has all the feeling of an upset and Challinor's side will have to be at their very best over two legs. A draw wouldn't be the worst result for either side here. GA

League One play-offs semi-final first leg: Bolton Wanderers v Bradford City
20.00 on Sky Sports Football & Ultra
Two relatively big beasts of the division fight for a place back in the Championship. It’s been well over 20 years since Bradford were last in the Championship, but the Bantams are now hoping for back-to-back promotions under Graham Alexander, who is probably already in the position of never having to pay for a drink in the city. Bolton, meanwhile, last graced the second tier in the 2018/19 season, and both have had spells in the bottom tier. To those of a certain vintage, this feels like a Premier League match up, when Sam Allardyce still harboured dreams of managing Real Madrid and Paul Jewell’s sex tape hadn’t yet entered the public domain. Neither side has exactly made it to the play-offs in sparkling form, stumbling over the line rather than convincingly booking their spots. The omens for both sides aren’t exactly promising, with the two teams playing out a less-than-inspiring 1-1 draw a couple of weeks ago. Home ties will probably make the difference here. Both sides have struggled on the road but have exceptional home form. If Bradford can shake off their poor form — and a final day win to relegate Exeter City suggests they may have done — then this is the match that could see them through to the playoff finals. Bolton only have one win in six, although that did come against Stevenage. The Trotters aren’t great at keeping clean sheets either. The signs point to the Bantams, but given there’s not been too much between the two sides all season, this could be a tight, tense affair. GA


Sunday

Scottish Premiership: Celtic v Rangers
12.00 on Sky Sports Football, Main Event & Ultra
In any other season, this match might have been a title decider. The Scottish top flight, in its various guises, has been shared between these two clubs without interruption since Aberdeen won it in 1985. But with Hearts currently top of the league and just three round of fixtures remaining, the Old Firm clash has been relegated to a play-off for who gets the chance to challenge the Edinburgh club for the highest honour. Celtic and Rangers’ decline feels swift and dramatic but in fact has been years in the making as the owners took their duopoly for granted and cut corners and costs. Matters came to head this season because Hearts have put together a strong side with an experienced coach, while the Old Firm made two of the most ill-conceived managerial hires in their history. Had Rangers hired Danny Rohl, at the start of the season, instead of Russel Martin, and Celtic kept Martin O’Neill in situ without their calamitous misadventure into “Nancyball” then Hearts would be third and this match would have been an internal matter of little interest to the Boxset. I try not to be too partisan in previews that don’t involve Palace or Dortmund but I’m hoping that both teams drop points. Neither have earned the right to deny Hearts their moment. Only Hearts can do that. TD

Premier League: West Ham United v Arsenal
16.30 on Sky Sports Premier League, Main Event & Ultra
With three rounds of fixtures to go, this is the last match of the season that has both title and relegation interest. City’s win over Burnley last month took them above Arsenal to the top of the Premier League for the first time since match day 2, on goals scored, and set up a straight five game race to the title. A race that most observers fully expect them to win, until that is, last Monday. Arsenal won their first two games of the race at home to Newcastle and then Fulham. City however faltered at the first hurdle, away to Everton. It was a match in which they took a first half lead but ended up salvaging a point in injury time of injury time (only the second time they have taken points from a losing position this season). Mood and opinion have shifted: once again it’s Arsenal’s to lose. There has been a similar shift in the relegation narrative. Back-to-back wins have seen Spurs climb back above the dotted line at the expense of West Ham who suffered a punishing defeat at Brentford last weekend. The Hammers though have made their home ground a fortress in their late-season run to stay up, not suffering a loss at the London Stadium since the first week of January. Despite being at opposite ends of the table, for both sides, this match represents their toughest fixture in the run-in. City play Brentford at home this weekend on Saturday 17.30, Spurs are at home to Leeds on Monday 20.00. Both games are on Sky Sports Premier League, Main Event & Ultra. GS

League Two play-offs semi-final first leg: Chesterfield v Notts County
18.00 on Sky Sports Football & Ultra Looking back, it was almost inevitable that these sides would meet at this stage. This is the third time these local-ish rivals have met in play-offs in just five years. The two previous occasions were in the National League. In 2021 they played a single leg quarter final, which Notts County won at home only to go out the next round to Torquay. They met again in the final at Wembley in 2023 with the Magpies once again triumphant, this time on penalties in a match where Chesterfield had taken the lead twice. Both sides went into the final weekend of the season with business still to do. Already assured of a play-off spot, a win for Notts County could have seen them promoted if results elsewhere went their way. In the end though they were pushed hard to take a point at home to Bristol Rovers while Cambridge got the point they need to stay ahead of Salford. For Chesterfield, the final day was a pre-play-off play-off away to Swindon, who had fallen away towards the season's end. Albanian forward Armando Dobra (who scored in that 2023 final) set up both goals for Paul Cook’s Spireites to win 2-1. They will be hoping it’s third time lucky here. The other League Two play-off semi-final is Grimsby Town v Salford City, which kicks off before this game at 15.00 on the same channels. GS


Whatever you watch, have a great weekend.

Graham, Terry and Gary

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